Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
